How Long Will $1 Million Last in Retirement?

How Long $1,000,000 Lasts at Different Monthly Spending Levels

Your monthly withdrawal rate determines how many years your savings last. In our internal modeling, we ran $1,000,000 through the same engine as our withdrawal calculator at four real returns and six monthly spending levels to see how many years each lasts. Using flat withdrawals in today's dollars, we mapped scenarios from zero growth up to a 5% real annual return. Withdrawals are taken at the end of each month, and the annual real return is divided by 12.

The inputs and conventions are stated here. In the withdrawal calculator, enter the real return as the return and hold the withdrawal flat to reproduce these rows. Check the inputs shown on that calculator first. In these modeled results, "does not run out" means the monthly withdrawal is equal to or less than the monthly investment return, so the portfolio principal never depletes.

A retiree spending $3,000 a month with no investment growth will deplete the balance in 27.8 years. That same $3,000 monthly spend extends to 40.6 years at a 2% real return. Once the real return reaches 4%, a $3,000 monthly draw requires less than the annual portfolio gain, leaving the starting $1,000,000 intact over any retirement horizon.

Moving your draw to $5,000 a month shortens the timeline. At 0% real return, the money lasts 16.7 years. At a 2% real return, it lasts 20.3 years. It reaches 27.6 years at 4% and 35.9 years at 5%. When spending reaches $8,000 per month, even a 5% real return keeps the portfolio alive for only 14.8 years.

What the Real Return Assumption Means

A real return is the portfolio return that remains after accounting for inflation.

As an example of the arithmetic, consider a 7% nominal portfolio return alongside 3% inflation. The real return is not simply 4%. The exact calculation divides the nominal factor by the inflation factor (1.07 / 1.03 - 1 = 0.0388), resulting in an actual real return of about 3.9%. Our calculations do not forecast future asset returns or inflation. They model fixed real returns.

Holding monthly withdrawals flat in today's dollars means the dollar amount pulled from accounts must increase each year to match the rising cost of goods. By using real returns, the model reflects a retiree maintaining the exact same purchasing power over 20, 30, or 40 years. This table holds withdrawals flat in today's dollars so payouts adjust for inflation, whereas a calculator that holds nominal withdrawals flat will show different timelines.

For instance, withdrawing $4,000 a month with a 0% real return leaves you with 20.8 years of income. Increasing that net real yield to 2% adds more than six full years of income, bringing portfolio longevity to 27 years. Increasing it to 4% yields 44.9 years of support. That four-point difference in real return more than doubles the lifespan of your savings. The years depend only on the ratio of monthly spending to the starting balance. $2,000,000 at $8,000 a month lasts the same 20.8, 27, and 44.9 years as $1,000,000 at $4,000, and $2,000,000 at $10,000 a month matches the $5,000 row.

How Much You Can Spend for 20, 25, 30, and 35 Years

Living to 90 means 35 years of withdrawals from age 55, 30 years from age 60, and 25 years from age 65.

To find the maximum monthly spending $1,000,000 supports across fixed retirement horizons, we used our investment engine. It calculated the highest flat monthly draw in today's dollars that empties the balance to zero at the end of each period.

For a retiree stepping away at age 65 who wants funds to last until age 90 (25 years), zero real growth permits spending $3,333.33 a month. Earning a 2% real return increases that monthly draw to $4,238.54. A 4% real return raises the highest flat monthly withdrawal that uses the balance up in 25 years to $5,278.37.

For an earlier retiree at age 60 planning for 30 years, zero investment growth allows a monthly draw of $2,777.78. A 2% real return provides $3,696.19 per month, while a 4% real return delivers $4,774.15. If planning begins at age 55 across a 35-year window, the monthly allowance ranges from $2,380.95 at 0% real return up to $4,427.75 at 4% real return. To see how these spending caps compare with smaller balances, see our breakdown on how long will 150k last in retirement.

Living on the Return Alone

Retirees who want to preserve their initial $1,000,000 nest egg can choose to live strictly on the portfolio's real yield. By withdrawing an amount equal to the monthly real return, the underlying balance remains at $1,000,000 in constant purchasing power indefinitely.

Interest-only income on $1,000,000 produces predictable monthly amounts across real return baselines:

• 2% real return: $20,000 a year, equal to $1,666.67 a month.
• 3% real return: $30,000 a year, equal to $2,500.00 a month.
• 4% real return: $40,000 a year, equal to $3,333.33 a month.
• 5% real return: $50,000 a year, equal to $4,166.67 a month.

The benchmark 4% withdrawal rate traces back to the research published by Cooley, Hubbard and Walz in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Journal. The research is widely known as the Trinity Study. The authors analyzed historical market cycles. They reported that withdrawing 4% of a portfolio's initial balance in year one, followed by annual inflation adjustments, lasted 30 years in most historical periods for portfolios weighted toward equities.

On a $1,000,000 balance, the 4% rule generates an initial annual income of $40,000, or $3,333.33 a month. The Trinity Study reported a historical result. It is not a guarantee. You can read more about broad portfolio structures in our guide on retirement withdrawal strategies and our review of how to retire with 1 million.

What Pushes the Number Up or Down

The mathematical models above isolate investment returns and flat monthly spending, but actual retirement outcomes depend on several financial variables.

Guaranteed external income extends how long your savings last. Every dollar received from Social Security or a traditional pension reduces the amount you must pull from your investment portfolio. Use our Social Security retirement calculator to project your benefit and evaluate your net portfolio draw.

Taxes also shorten the lifespan of your funds. Withdrawals from pre-tax accounts, such as traditional 401(k) plans and individual retirement account (IRA) plans, are taxed when withdrawn. Taxes raise the gross withdrawal you need to cover everyday spending, which depletes the balance sooner.

Sequence-of-returns risk represents another factor that fixed-rate models do not capture. In the real world, market returns do not arrive in identical annual increments. A run of poor returns early in retirement can empty a balance sooner than a fixed average return shows. Healthcare costs, long-term care needs, and shifting spending patterns are not in the model. You can map out your total household cash flow across different asset types with our retirement income calculator.

This analysis does not fit someone who needs $5,000 or more a month from the portfolio alone over 30 years at a 4% real return or lower. At $5,000 a month, $1,000,000 lasts 16.7 to 35.9 years depending on the real return (0%, 2%, 4%, or 5%), so check that row in the table. Other income lowers the draw, which you can check with our Social Security retirement calculator. Readers expecting returns below inflation should read the 0% column. The projected longevity figures will change whenever actual returns drop, tax rates shift, or expenses grow faster than inflation.

Our Takeaway

Based on our internal modeling, $1,000,000 lasts about 10 to more than 45 years depending on monthly spending and the real return. For a 30-year retirement from age 60 to 90, the ceiling is about $2,780 a month with no growth, $3,700 at a 2% real return and $4,770 at 4%. Spend more and the balance runs out before year 30.

It works for a retiree whose Social Security or pension covers the rest of their spending. It does not fit a reader who needs $5,000 or more a month from the portfolio alone over three decades at a 4% real return or lower. It also fits poorly if you expect returns below inflation.

Our modeling assumes constant withdrawals in today's dollars. Your outcome will shift with other income, early losses, taxes on withdrawals and spending that outpaces inflation. To see how long your portfolio lasts under your own numbers, run your planned spending through our withdrawal calculator. Then review your baseline with a certified financial planner or certified public accountant (CPA).

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