Will Social Security Run Out?

When the Social Security Trust Funds Run Short

The 2026 Trustees Report projects that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund, which pays retirement and survivor benefits, will be depleted in 2032, with a 22% benefit cut after that. The table puts that date beside the combined-fund view and the CBO estimate published earlier in 2026.

The combined rows treat the OASI fund and the Disability Insurance (DI) fund as one pool. That merger is theoretical, so 2032 and 22% are the Trustees' figures for retirement benefits. CBO projects a deeper cut than the Trustees, a 28% average, and an earlier combined date of 2033.

The cut would be automatic because Social Security cannot legally spend more than its revenues and assets. Once the reserves are gone, the program pays what incoming revenue covers, which works out to about 78% of scheduled retirement benefits in 2032. CRFB describes 2032 as the year today's youngest retirees turn 68.

The 2025 report projected 2033 for the OASI fund, so this year's report moved the date one year earlier. The combined date of 2034 did not change from last year's report.

Why the Date Moved Up From 2033 to 2032

The 2026 outlook is weaker than last year's, when the OASI date was 2033, and CRFB traces the 75-year deterioration mainly to lower birth and immigration assumptions and to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) reducing one of the program's revenue sources. CRFB measures each driver by how much it worsened the outlook, as a share of payroll:

• **Lower fertility:** the Trustees cut the assumed long-run fertility rate from 1.9 to 1.75 children per woman, a 0.35% of payroll hit.
• **Lower immigration:** the assumed long-run level of temporary or unlawfully present immigrants fell from 1.35 million to 1.2 million a year, a 0.21% of payroll hit.
• **OBBBA:** the law reduced revenue from the income taxation of Social Security benefits, a 0.16% of payroll hit.

CRFB's breakdown assigns over half of the deterioration to lower fertility, a third to lower immigration and a quarter to OBBBA. All of the damage landed on the retirement fund. The DI fund's actuarial balance improved slightly, from 0.12% to 0.13% of payroll.

Program costs rose from 10.4% of payroll in 2000 to 13.5% in 2010, the year deficits first reappeared, and reached 15.2% in 2025. Revenue was about 13.1% of payroll in 2025 and is projected to reach only 13.5% by 2100.

Costs are projected to keep climbing, to 16.9% of payroll in 2050 and 20.0% in 2100. CRFB attributes the rising costs to the aging of the population and growing benefit generosity.

How Large the Social Security Shortfall Is

Social Security's 75-year actuarial deficit is 4.42% of taxable payroll in the 2026 report, equal to 1.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) and about $31 trillion in present value. That is the largest shortfall since 1977. It grew 16%, or 0.60 percentage points, from 3.82% of payroll in the 2025 report, and it is 2.3 times the shortfall projected in 2010.

The yearly cash gap is already open. The Trustees estimate a combined cash deficit of $270 billion in 2026. Over the next decade, Social Security will spend $3.8 trillion more than it collects, equal to 2.7% of taxable payroll or 0.9% of GDP.

The annual cash deficits are projected to grow on this path:

• 2.7% of payroll (1.0% of GDP) by 2036
• 3.7% of payroll (1.3% of GDP) in 2050
• 6.6% of payroll (2.2% of GDP) by 2100

What a 22% Cut Would Mean for Benefits

A 22% cut means a retiree's check would pay about 78% of the scheduled amount starting in 2032, if lawmakers do not change the law first. The cut is a projection of what current rules produce. The Trustees recommend that lawmakers address the shortfall in a timely way so any changes can be phased in gradually.

Per $100 of scheduled benefit, the projections work out like this:

• **OASI fund, 2026 Trustees, 2032:** $78 paid ($100 minus the 22% cut)
• **OASI fund, 2026 Trustees, 2100:** $62 paid ($100 minus the 38% cut)
• **Combined funds, 2026 Trustees, 2034:** $83 paid ($100 minus the 17% cut)
• **OASI fund, CBO average after 2032:** $72 paid ($100 minus the 28% cut)

For a dollar figure, CRFB estimated that a typical couple retiring in 2033 would face an $18,400 annual reduction under a similar cut. That number is CRFB's own earlier estimate, separate from the Trustees' projections. Your own figure depends on your scheduled benefit.

What It Would Take to Close the Gap

Restoring long-term solvency for the combined funds today would take the equivalent of a 34% payroll tax increase or a 25% cut to all benefits, according to the 2026 Trustees Report as analysed by CRFB. Each of these options alone would close the gap if lawmakers acted now:

• A 34% payroll tax increase, equal to 4.25 percentage points
• A 25% reduction in total benefits
• A 30% reduction in benefits for new beneficiaries only

Waiting makes the tax increase and the all-beneficiary cut about 15% larger. By 2034, the adjustments would be about 15% larger: a 40% (4.9 point) tax increase or a 29% cut for all beneficiaries. Cutting only new beneficiaries' benefits would not be enough at that point, even if their benefits were eliminated entirely.

Eliminating the payroll tax cap, which is $184,500 in 2026, would close around half of the solvency gap, and so would re-indexing benefits with progressive price indexing. The cap rises to $192,300 in 2027, as covered in our guide to 2027 Social Security changes.

Which option Congress will choose, if any, is not known. A change in law or a new Trustees Report would change the dates and cuts above.

What This Means for Claiming Decisions

The trust fund projections tell you when an automatic cut could start and how deep it would be. When to claim is a separate decision, and each tradeoff has its own tool on this site.

Use these pages to put numbers on that decision:

• Social Security break-even calculator
• Social Security at 62 vs 70
• Social Security retirement calculator
• Social Security COLA calculator (the 2027 COLA is 3.6%)
• Is Social Security taxable (OBBBA reduced revenue from the income taxation of benefits)

For the latest projections, read CRFB's analysis of the 2026 Trustees Report.

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